Crypto Predictive Analysis for the Week of May 15, 2022 — Eating My Feelings
A huge move lower from $69,000 in November 2021 to around $24,300 in May 2022 in Bitcoin’s (BTC) price has resulted in a sell-off turmoil across the crypto market. Unfortunately, the bearish sentiment has not even spared stablecoins, so-called crypto equivalents of the U.S. dollar, which have been unable to stay as “stable” as they claim.
After breaking down from a long-term structure, bitcoin (BTC) has managed to bounce at the $28,700 Fib support area. BTC has been trading inside a long-term ascending parallel channel since April 2021. The resistance line of this channel was most recently touched in Nov 2021, when the price reached a new all-time high of $69,000. BTC has been falling since.
Bitcoin Analysis
BTC price treads water on Saturday extending the consolidation of the last two sessions. The sellers seem exhausted near two-year lows. As the price quickly recovered back from the lows of Thursday with a gain of 5k points. In addition to that, a bullish formation on the weekly chart is looking for a minor upside. BTC’s price attempts to recover but faces a strong upside hurdle in the last few session. BTC dropped 63% from the record highs made in November at $69,000. However, amid the oversold market structure, there is a fair chance of a recovery in the weekly time frame. On the weekly chart, the BTC price tested the critical 200-day EMA (Exponential Moving Average) at $26,879.01 with the formation of a ‘hammer’ candlestick pattern. A sustained buying pressure would be required to push the price to pierce and tag the horizontal $34,000 mark. An acceptance above $34,000 would ask for $40,000, the horizontal resistance zone. On the contrary, a spike in sell orders could push the price lower. Further, a daily candlestick below $25,000 would trigger a key level to amplify the selling toward December 2020 low, $18,000.
Technical indicator:
RSI: The weekly relative strength index trades below the average line near the oversold zone. The same levels were last seen in March 2020.
MACD: The moving average convergence divergence holds below the midline with a bearish bias.
- Resistance level- $31,000, and $34,500
- Support levels- $27,000 and $24,000
Ethereum Analysis
Ethereum price trades in a very tight range with no clear directional bias on Saturday, although bias remains negative. The ETH buyers struggle to sustain the gains at higher levels. However, the downside seems to be capped near $1,900, which makes it a vital support level in the current situation. The relief rally bought back the crypto above the $2,000 mark following the massive sell-off. Still, the downside pressure remained intact in the asset. ETH price traded in a downward trend since November with a drop of 65% as it made record highs at $4,867.81. Since then, the price moved inside the downside parallel channel with the classic Lower low and lower high formation.
Before breaking the long-term horizontal zone placed at around $2,500, the price tested it thrice, making it a crucial level to hold for investors. The price broke the level this week and locked the loss of more than 20%. Further ETH approaches the critical 200-day EMA (Exponential Moving Average) at $1,625.13. This indicates the underlying bearish current in the asset. However, as per the parallel channel formation, the price should bounce back toward $2,500. Again, an extended buying would force it to reclaim $2,900. Before turning negative once again. On the flip side, a spike in sell orders could drag the price lower to test $1,700.
Technical indicators:
On the weekly chart, the relative strength index (RSI) fell below the average line on April 24. Another oscillator, the moving average convergence divergence holds into the oversold zone with negative bias.
- Resistance level- $2600and $2800
- Support levels- $2,000 and $1,700
Altcoin Analysis
Tron Analysis
The failed attempt from the TRON (TRX) buyers to escape the range-bound rally indicates a potential downfall to the $0.057 mark. The $0.075 fallout brings a short opportunity for interested traders to take an 18% target. Can the concentrated EMAs stall the upcoming free fall? The TRON(TRX) price has resonated in a horizontal channel since the beginning of 2022. During the consolidation phase, the coin comfortably bolstered itself at the $0.057 support making several attempts to push its way through the $0.0748 resistance. The constant accumulation of buyers over the past five months and their efforts to break the horizontal channel finally saw success on 4th May and reached a high of the $0.9 mark. However, the buyers couldn’t sustain this breakout amidst the recent crash in the crypto mark and succumbed to the daunting horizontal channel once again. The TRX price currently trades at $0.716, with an intraday loss of 3.51%. The support fallout suggests the TRX price would descend 18.7% lower to retest $0.057 support.
Technical indicator
The TRX/USDT pair pierced through the midline of the Bollinger band indicator gives additional confirmation for descending to the lower support band situated near $0.57.
The vortex indicator shows the VI+ and VI- the slope is poised to bearish crossover. This sell signal may bring additional sellers and bolster the expected 18% fall.
- Resistance levels- $0.074 and $0.088
- Support levels- $0.057 and $0.053
Solana Analysis
SOL price is still struggling to recover post a broader market sell-off. There seems to be no end to this massive downside trend. On moving down, the SOL price tested the lows of $35.0 for the first time in 10-month. The descending trend line from the record highs acted as a strong resistance barrier for the bulls. The price tested the bearish line thrice but was unable to get through making lower lows. A slippage below the 20-day EMA (Exponential Moving Average) at $118.07 on March 28. Since then, the price dropped by 69%. Currently, the price hovers near the crucial $50.0 mark, a sustained buying pressure would push the price higher to test $60.0. The next upside filter stands at 100-day EMA (Exponential Moving Average) at 74.
On the flip side, a weekly candlestick below $36.34 would invalidate any bullish outlook on the asset. In that case, the price could drop to the levels last seen in August 2021, at $32.36.
- Resistance levels- $60 and $80
- Support levels- $40 and $30
MANA Analysis
Asymmetrical triangle pattern fallout on April 6th, outburst a strong selling momentum trapped within this 4-month consolidation. The price pattern bolstered MANA sellers to resume the prevailing downtrend and breach the immediate support level of $2. Amid the recent sell-off in the crypto market, the downfall pierced through some additional support levels and marked $0.63 as the new 2022 low. Furthermore, the MANA sellers actively respond to a resistance trendline to maintain a steady downfall. Nevertheless, on May 13th, the MANA price bounced back from the $0.63 support and surged 106% to retest the descending trendline. Moreover, a high-wick rejection attached to the daily candle suggests that altcoin faces strong selling pressure.
Technical indicator
The Supertrend indicator highlights an overall downtrend and bolsters the reversal theory. In addition, the daily-RSI slope shows significant divergence and follow-up rally contrary to the falling price, indicating the overextended selling has stabilized. However, if the divergence grows stronger, the altcoin may eventually breach the resistance trendline.
- Resistance levels: $1.11, and $1.66
- Support levels: $0.62, and $0.4
Conclusion
Sharp market downturns are not always bad news as they provide entry points for investors seeking longer-term gains. That appears to be what is happening at the moment according to CryptoQuant CEO Ki-Young Ju. The blockchain analytics firm chief said that “institutional investors are buying BTC via market makers right now.” The cryptocurrency market lost $1.9 trillion six months after it soared to a record high. Interestingly, these losses are bigger than those witnessed during the 2007’s subprime mortgage market crisis — around $1.3 trillion, which has prompted fears that creaking crypto market risk will spill over across traditional markets, hurting stocks and bonds alike. Crypto markets have stabilized after last week’s bloodbath and on-chain asset movements may suggest that institutional investors are starting to load up on bitcoin again.
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A former professional rugby player, Adam S. Tracy brings over twenty years’ experience as an attorney, consultant and dealmaker with a particular focus on cryptocurrency, digital products, payments and immersive corporate structures. As an accomplished executive and advisor to blockchain merchants and stakeholders, Adam has proven himself as a results oriented, decisive leader with proven success advising early market entrants, technology adapters, as well as established participants across a wide range of blockchain verticals. Adam Tracy’s attack-first personality allows him to excel in dynamic, demanding environments including complex corporate negotiations, distressed environments and regulatory investigations.
In addition, Adam S. Tracy also has a successful track record co-founding blockchain industry ventures, building & leading cross-functional teams, and spearheading diverse corporate transactions. A serial entrepreneur, Adam has successfully started and created exits across a wide swath of markets, including various mobile SaaS ventures, cryptocurrency, peer-to-peer payment systems, and numerous token generation events. Moreover, as a recognized expert in the payments field, Adam Tracy has been a blockchain and digital currency evangelist and influencer since the early days of Bitcoin.
Utilizing his proprietary “Pre-Event Driven™” strategy for decision making, Adam S. Tracy further leverages his over twenty years’ experience to create cost-effective, value-add solutions for each client. A data-driven acolyte, Adam continually refines his strategies based on field studies and data collection. Moreover, Adam Tracy further augments his range of solutions by actively networking with regulators, liquidity providers, legal and compliance experts, deal-flow brokers, investors and management of leading high risk industry ventures.
Adam S. Tracy earned his Bachelor of Science in Computer Applications and Bachelor of Science in Finance from the University of Notre Dame. He subsequently earned his Masters in Business Administration from the DePaul Kellstadt Graduate School of Business, while concurrently earning his Juris Doctorate from the DePaul College of Law. Adam lives outside Los Angeles with his with his wife, son, four dogs, and two cats.
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